Jacqui (jacqui) wrote,

My 2006 Oscar Predictions

After all of that talk about how I always get these right, I have to admit that it's been years since I've really tried to handicap the awards, at least not the in the way that I used to. I just don't take the whole thing as seriously as I once did, and there's the fact that there's never been a year that I can remember that was quite like this, where I had to fight to find so many of the nominated films. Unlike Academy Members I don't get to sit around waiting for all of those DVDs to pile up in my mailbox. Anyway, flawed though they may be, and vulnerable to any kind of upset, (Crash anyone?) here they are. Don't bet any money on these ; )

Best Picture:
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain/Crash

Okay, here's the deal, I love Ang Lee, and I love the story of Brokeback Mountain -- the story of the movie, and the story of the making of the movie -- but I really loved Crash. Then there was Good Night and Good Luck a film about one of my favorite political subjects. However, and even though all of the nominated movies, particularly Brokeback and Crash, were equally important in terms of what they have to say socially, I think Brokeback Mountain was more groundbreaking. So, despite the slow pace, and because of the solid work of both of the male leads, Heath Ledger in particular, and the fact that this film was so sweepingly cinematic, my pick on both counts is Brokeback Mountain, but I wouldn't cry into the beer I can't drink, because of my messed up bladder, if Crash won.

Best Director:
Will Win: Ang Lee; Broke Back Mountain
Should Win: Ang Lee; Broke Back Mountain

I love Ang Lee, I've been following his career since Hsi Yen, (The Wedding Banquet), and then he followed that up with Eat Drink Man Woman, and then he took his directing ability to other worlds when he directed Sense and Sensibility, which was so quintessentially British, and followed that up with The Ice Storm, a film you would have thought only an American who had lived through the seventies would have been able to help. I think he's amazing, plus he's friendly, approachable, and humble. I'm all for Ang Lee.

Best Actor:
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman; Capote
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman; Capote

I don't think there's any question here. Philip Seymour Hoffman was magnificent. I've loved him for so long. He's way overdue.

Best Actress:
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon; Walk the Line
Should Win: Felicity Huffman; Transamerica

I haven't even seen Transamerica, which is a real pity, but I'm hoping that after the awards maybe it'll come out on DVD, or I'll find some time to hunt down an out-of-the-way theatre where it might still be playing. I know it doesn't seem fair to root for someone whose work I haven't even seen, but I've certainly seen enough clips from the film and frankly I love Felicity Huffman, like Phillip Seymour Hoffman, she's an actor's actor, and I love to see mature women win. Plus how wonderful is she to take on this part and champion the cause of the transgendered? Keira Knightly, how lovely was she in Pride and Prejudice, but she's still so young and the tide doesn't seem to be moving in her favor. And finally, yes, Reese Witherspoon was ADORABLE, and soooo sweet in Walk the Line, like Rachel Weisz she was the center of this film, but I liked her best in that weird serial killer movie she did with Kiefer Sutherland. I preferred her when she was just a little less Hollywood polished and promoted, but that isn't really her fault, and she's such a hard worker. This one is such a crap shoot because it could go either way. I guess I'm just going to have to go with Reese because I know more people will have seen this film, darn it. I'll be happy with whoever wins, they were all so good, especially Judi Dench whose feet I would gladly kiss, but my heart is with Felicity.

Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: George Clooney; Syriana
Should Win: George Clooney; Syriana

This is George Clooney's year, but chances aren't looking too good for him in the other categories he's been nominated in, so I have a feeling this is the bone he'll be thrown. Not that he doesn't deserve it, we all know what he went through to transform himself for the part, and speaking from first hand experience, and despite the fact that it's been done before, the whole weight gain thing is always a sure fire way to get my vote. I do feel a wee bit sad for Paul Giamatti, and he was so good in Sideways as well, he's so due.

Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Rachel Weisz
Should Win: Catherine Keener/Rachel Weisz

Oh this is so hard because I absolute love Catherine Keener, and she was so important and her work was so subtle in Capote, but no one is talking about her for the win, and Frances McDormand, well, she's an acting goddess, but she's already one once for Fargo. I thought Michelle Williams was solid in Brokeback, but she didn't really blow my mind, maybe I'm not satisfied with subtle work when I should be. I seem to be the only person I know who hated Amy Adams, well, maybe hate is too strong of a word, let's say disliked Amy Adams in Junebug. I'm sorry to be a snarky bitter actress here, but it was just so one note. Rachel Weisz was the shining heart of The Constant Gardener, she was so charismatic I couldn't take my eyes off of her, couldn't stop thinking about her when she was gone. Her presence lasted long beyond her death and made Ralph Fiennes' transformation completely understandable. Plus I'm a sucker for pregnant women and there she was with her sexy pregnant belly in that bathtub scene, and she's pregnant in real life.

Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco; Crash
Should Win: Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco; Crash

I really care about the subject matter of Good Night and Good Luck and am thrilled this movie got made, and by George Clooney, no less, and then there's the crush factor, no, not on Clooney, but on David Strathairn, I've loved him since Passion Fish in '92, where does the time go? But, when I saw Crash, all by myself at this out of the way theatre in the valley, I was just blown away, and knew it was going to rack up the nominations, it was so affecting and moving, the kind of movie where you leave the theatre changed in some way and are still thinking about it weeks later.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Diana Ossana and Larry Mcmurtry; Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Diana Ossana and Larry Mcmurtry; Brokeback Mountain

Best Editing:
Will Win: Crash
Should Win: Crash

Best Cinematography:
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain

Best Animated Feature Film:
Will Win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse Of The Were-Rabbit
Should Win: Wallace and Gromit: The Curse Of The Were-Rabbit

I love Tim Burton, but this movie was so funny, and it won the BAFTA so I'm going to take a chance here and go with Wallace and Gromit.

Best Art Direction:
Will Win: Memoirs Of A Geisha
Should Win: Memoirs Of A Geisha

Did you see this movie?

Best Original Song:
Will Win: In The Deep; Crash
Should Win: In The Deep; Crash

Scott and I loved It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp, it had a catchy hook, and it was so central to the movie, but I don't know, I'm leaning towards Crash, we have to give them something.

Best Costume Design:
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should Win: Memoirs of a Geisha

Colleen Atwood, hands down, plus she has fabulous taste, had my son over to her house and has a teenage daughter Beau's age, she gets points for that, it isn't easy raising teenagers.

Best Documentary Feature:
Will Win: Murderball
Should Win: March of the Penguins

This is hard because March of the Penguins was so popular...

Best Documentary Short:
Will Win: The Mushroom Club
Should Win: The Mushroom Club

I'm going to go with my gut and say Mushroom Club.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Will Win: Sophie Scholl-The Final Days
Should Win: Sophie Scholl-The Final Days

I tried to see this and only caught a bit of it yesterday when I snuck in to the theatre. It was packed, but what I saw, standing at the back of the theatre, was good and moving. Plus, Holocaust movies and me -- could be the fact that I was raised Catholic but the nuns taught us to care by making us watch Anne Frank and have pretend Passover meals with grape juice and crackers, could be the fact that my boyfriend is Jewish, the fact that I'm extremely sensitive and compassionate, and have friends who actually survived the Holocaust, or the whole reincarnation factor, but whatever it is, Holocaust movies and me, I'm a sucker for misery and hardship. I know people are leaning towards Tsotsi, but honestly, in this category, I don't have a clue.

Best Makeup:
Will Win: Star Wars Episode 3: Revenge Of The Sith
Should Win: Star Wars Episode 3: Revenge Of The Sith

Best Original Score:
Will Win: Memoirs Of A Geisha; John Williams
Should Win: Memoirs Of A Geisha; John Williams

It's John Williams, it was amazing, 'nuff said.

Best Animated Short Film:
Will Win: One Man Band
Should Win: One Man Band

Best Live Action Short:
Will Win: Cashback
Should Win: Cashback

Best Sound Editing:
Will Win: King Kong
Should Win: King Kong

Best Sound Mixing:
Will Win: King Kong
Should Win: King Kong

Best Visual Effects:
Will Win: War Of The Worlds
Should Win: War Of The Worlds

King Kong was pretty spectacular but it just took them too damned long to get to that island and War of the Worlds, well, what wasn't too love about those crazy tripod creatures?

And last but not least, I wish I could have gone to the Independent Spirit Awards, every year I swear I'll go, and every year I forget to. Here's a blog from a New York Times Columnist who covered it.

Oh God I've got to get dressed, got the guacamole and the dips made, but I haven't even brushed my hair and Scott will be here in mere minutes...

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